U.S. Ancona vs L'Aquila

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

U.S. Ancona

L'Aquila

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.0% DRAW 29.8% AWAY 22.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% 2.08 DRAW 30.1% 3.10 AWAY 25.0% 3.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for U.S. Ancona relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.0% win probability, compared with 44.9% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: U.S. Ancona

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

U.S. Ancona L'Aquila

Shots 15.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours U.S. Ancona, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

U.S. Ancona L'Aquila

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.3

L'Aquila has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

U.S. Ancona L'Aquila

The combined recent performance profile favours U.S. Ancona.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

U.S. Ancona ↓ -0.02 (-1.0%)

L'Aquila ↑ +0.53 (+16.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.