Bournemouth U21 vs Stoke U21

21 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Bournemouth U21

Stoke U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.0% DRAW 16.8% AWAY 21.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.4% 1.61 DRAW 18.4% 5.21 AWAY 22.2% 4.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bournemouth U21 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.0% win probability, compared with 59.4% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Bournemouth U21

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bournemouth U21 Stoke U21

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Bournemouth U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bournemouth U21 Stoke U21

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bournemouth U21 Stoke U21

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bournemouth U21 ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

Stoke U21 ↓ -0.03 (-0.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.