Southampton U21 vs Bournemouth U21

12 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Southampton U21

Bournemouth U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.4% DRAW 18.1% AWAY 19.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.8% 1.56 DRAW 19.6% 4.77 AWAY 20.6% 4.53

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Southampton U21 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.4% win probability, compared with 59.8% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Bournemouth U21

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Southampton U21 Bournemouth U21

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Southampton U21 Bournemouth U21

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Southampton U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Southampton U21 Bournemouth U21

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Southampton U21 ↓ 0.00 (-0.2%)

Bournemouth U21 ↓ -0.11 (-2.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.