Paganese vs Afragolese 1944

16 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Paganese

Afragolese 1944

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.9% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 14.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% 1.67 DRAW 24.3% 4.10 AWAY 16.1% 6.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Paganese has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Paganese Afragolese 1944

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Paganese, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Paganese Afragolese 1944

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Paganese has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Paganese Afragolese 1944

The combined recent performance profile favours Paganese.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Paganese ↓ -0.29 (-14.8%)

Afragolese 1944 ↑ +2.56 (+70.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.