Soneja vs Utiel

20 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Soneja

Utiel

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.7% DRAW 31.9% AWAY 25.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% 2.23 DRAW 31.5% 3.00 AWAY 26.2% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Soneja

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Soneja Utiel

Shots 5.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 4.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Soneja Utiel

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Soneja Utiel

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Soneja ↑ +0.28 (+14.4%)

Utiel = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.