Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Milton Keynes Dons

Crawley Town

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.1% DRAW 18.6% AWAY 15.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.8% 1.44 DRAW 18.8% 5.20 AWAY 13.5% 7.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Crawley Town has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Milton Keynes Dons Crawley Town

Shots 13.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 15.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Milton Keynes Dons Crawley Town

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Crawley Town has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Milton Keynes Dons Crawley Town

The combined recent performance profile favours Crawley Town.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Milton Keynes Dons ↓ -0.02 (-1.4%)

Crawley Town ↑ +1.75 (+31.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.