Peterborough vs Colchester

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Peterborough

Colchester

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 26.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.2% 1.90 DRAW 24.0% 3.97 AWAY 25.8% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Peterborough

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Peterborough Colchester

Shots 15.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 13.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Peterborough Colchester

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Colchester has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Peterborough Colchester

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Peterborough ↓ -0.10 (-5.0%)

Colchester ↓ -0.30 (-7.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.