Crewe vs Aston Villa U21

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Crewe

Aston Villa U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.6% DRAW 17.7% AWAY 15.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.0% 1.41 DRAW 18.4% 5.15 AWAY 14.6% 6.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Aston Villa U21

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Crewe Aston Villa U21

Shots 13.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Crewe Aston Villa U21

Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Crewe Aston Villa U21

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Crewe ↓ -0.21 (-12.7%)

Aston Villa U21 ↑ +1.25 (+23.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.