Santos vs Palmeiras

03 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT HOME +3.6 pp

Santos

Palmeiras

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.6% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 30.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.0% 2.40 DRAW 28.4% 3.30 AWAY 32.6% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Santos significantly higher than the market does.

Our model estimates a 42.6% win probability, compared with 39.0% implied by the market. This 3.6 percentage-point gap, supported by 193 historically comparable matches, highlights a significant divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Palmeiras has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santos Palmeiras

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 13.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Palmeiras, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santos Palmeiras

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Palmeiras has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santos Palmeiras

The combined recent performance profile favours Palmeiras.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Santos ↓ -1.06 (-30.3%)

Palmeiras ↑ +0.76 (+32.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.