Swindon vs Newport County

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Swindon

Newport County

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.7% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 24.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% 1.78 DRAW 23.9% 3.91 AWAY 23.8% 3.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Newport County

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Swindon Newport County

Shots 8.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Swindon Newport County

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Newport County has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Swindon Newport County

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Swindon ↓ -0.25 (-12.3%)

Newport County ↑ +0.18 (+4.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.