Cheltenham vs Exeter

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Cheltenham

Exeter

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 36.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.8% 2.38 DRAW 24.3% 4.00 AWAY 34.9% 2.78

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Exeter

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cheltenham Exeter

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cheltenham Exeter

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Exeter has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cheltenham Exeter

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Cheltenham ↓ -0.14 (-5.6%)

Exeter ↑ +0.17 (+6.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.