Chesterfield vs Port Vale

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Chesterfield

Port Vale

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 31.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.1% 2.19 DRAW 24.2% 3.90 AWAY 32.7% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Chesterfield relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.8% win probability, compared with 43.1% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Chesterfield

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chesterfield Port Vale

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Chesterfield, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chesterfield Port Vale

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Port Vale has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chesterfield Port Vale

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Chesterfield ↓ -0.03 (-1.4%)

Port Vale ↓ -0.12 (-4.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.