Santa Amalia vs CD Quintana

13 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Santa Amalia

CD Quintana

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.7% DRAW 30.5% AWAY 24.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.1% 2.15 DRAW 30.3% 3.13 AWAY 25.6% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santa Amalia

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santa Amalia CD Quintana

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 3.8 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Santa Amalia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santa Amalia CD Quintana

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.3

CD Quintana has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santa Amalia CD Quintana

The combined recent performance profile favours Santa Amalia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Santa Amalia = (0.0%)

CD Quintana ↑ +0.50 (+15.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.