Merani Martvili vs FC Sioni Bolnisi

16 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Merani Martvili

FC Sioni Bolnisi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.2% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 27.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.2% 2.22 DRAW 27.7% 3.30 AWAY 31.1% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Merani Martvili relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.2% win probability, compared with 41.2% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Merani Martvili

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Merani Martvili FC Sioni Bolnisi

Shots 13.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Merani Martvili FC Sioni Bolnisi

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Merani Martvili has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Merani Martvili FC Sioni Bolnisi

The combined recent performance profile favours Merani Martvili.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Merani Martvili = (0.0%)

FC Sioni Bolnisi = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.