Al-Muharraq vs Manama

10 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Al-Muharraq

Manama

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.0% DRAW 14.9% AWAY 8.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.2% 1.26 DRAW 16.5% 5.66 AWAY 9.3% 10.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al-Muharraq relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.0% win probability, compared with 74.2% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al-Muharraq has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al-Muharraq Manama

Shots 15.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Al-Muharraq, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al-Muharraq Manama

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Al-Muharraq has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al-Muharraq Manama

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Muharraq.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Al-Muharraq ↓ -0.03 (-1.9%)

Manama ↑ +2.60 (+34.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.