Virtus Francavilla vs Brindisi FC

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Virtus Francavilla

Brindisi FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.0% DRAW 27.3% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.5% 1.94 DRAW 27.8% 3.25 AWAY 25.7% 3.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Virtus Francavilla relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.0% win probability, compared with 46.5% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Virtus Francavilla

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Virtus Francavilla Brindisi FC

Shots 15.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 2.8 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Virtus Francavilla, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Virtus Francavilla Brindisi FC

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.0

Brindisi FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Virtus Francavilla Brindisi FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Virtus Francavilla ↑ +0.08 (+4.5%)

Brindisi FC ↓ -0.33 (-8.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.