Siracusa vs Città di Gela

16 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Siracusa

Città di Gela

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.5% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 14.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.2% 1.55 DRAW 25.2% 3.58 AWAY 16.6% 5.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Siracusa relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.5% win probability, compared with 58.2% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Siracusa

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Siracusa Città di Gela

Shots 12.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 2.3 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Siracusa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Siracusa Città di Gela

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Siracusa Città di Gela

The combined recent performance profile favours Siracusa.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Siracusa ↓ -0.04 (-2.5%)

Città di Gela = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.