Baku Sporting FC vs FK Karvan

03 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG HOME +12.3 pp

Baku Sporting FC

FK Karvan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.1% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 21.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% 2.38 DRAW 29.0% 3.10 AWAY 33.2% 2.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Baku Sporting FC significantly higher than the market does.

Our model estimates a 50.1% win probability, compared with 37.8% implied by the market. This 12.3 percentage-point gap, supported by 98 historically comparable matches, highlights a significant divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Baku Sporting FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Baku Sporting FC FK Karvan

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.5 Shots 7.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Baku Sporting FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Baku Sporting FC FK Karvan

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Baku Sporting FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Baku Sporting FC FK Karvan

The combined recent performance profile favours Baku Sporting FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Baku Sporting FC = (0.0%)

FK Karvan = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.