Simal FK vs Cebrayil FK

04 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Simal FK

Cebrayil FK

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 28.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% 2.16 DRAW 26.2% 3.50 AWAY 31.3% 2.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Simal FK relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.3% win probability, compared with 42.5% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Simal FK has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Simal FK Cebrayil FK

Shots 10.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Simal FK Cebrayil FK

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 7.0

Simal FK has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Simal FK Cebrayil FK

The combined recent performance profile favours Simal FK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Simal FK = (0.0%)

Cebrayil FK = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.