Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

03 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Lech Poznan

Jagiellonia Bialystok

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.8% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 19.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.1% 1.65 DRAW 21.5% 4.46 AWAY 20.4% 4.71

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lech Poznan relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.8% win probability, compared with 58.1% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Lech Poznan

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lech Poznan Jagiellonia Bialystok

Shots 13.8 · On target 8.0 Shots 14.3 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lech Poznan Jagiellonia Bialystok

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Lech Poznan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lech Poznan Jagiellonia Bialystok

The combined recent performance profile favours Lech Poznan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Lech Poznan ↓ -0.12 (-6.8%)

Jagiellonia Bialystok ↑ +0.72 (+18.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.