Colombe du Dja et Lobo vs Stade Malien

06 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Colombe du Dja et Lobo

Stade Malien

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.8% DRAW 32.2% AWAY 38.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.4% 3.60 DRAW 31.2% 3.05 AWAY 42.4% 2.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Colombe du Dja et Lobo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.8% win probability, compared with 26.4% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Colombe du Dja et Lobo

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Colombe du Dja et Lobo Stade Malien

Shots 16.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 5.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Colombe du Dja et Lobo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Colombe du Dja et Lobo Stade Malien

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Colombe du Dja et Lobo Stade Malien

The combined recent performance profile favours Colombe du Dja et Lobo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Colombe du Dja et Lobo ↓ -0.90 (-20.0%)

Stade Malien ↑ +0.51 (+29.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.