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Croatia U19 League · HR

Dinamo Zagreb U19 vs NK Sesvete U19

24 Oct 2026 · 12:00
FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a moderate model-market difference for a home win for Dinamo Zagreb U19. The model and market assessments show a noticeable divergence.

Recent Performance

The home side have experienced mixed results recently. They have generated considerably more attempts than they have conceded.

The visitors have often remained competitive without securing many victories. Defensive difficulties have been apparent. Their opponents have held a modest advantage in shooting volume, although a smaller share of attempts has reached the target in the more recent matches.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Bet365 pre-match reference odds of 1.18 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 1.23. At this price, a home win for Dinamo Zagreb U19 does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.

Statistical Context & Data Notes

Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · BET365
HOME MODEL > MARKET
Dinamo Zagreb U19
STOCHASTICBET 81.4%
BET365 76.0% odd 1.18
DIFFERENCE +5.4 pp
DRAW
Draw
STOCHASTICBET 10.3%
BET365 12.8% odd 7.00
DIFFERENCE -2.5 pp
AWAY
NK Sesvete U19
STOCHASTICBET 8.3%
BET365 11.2% odd 8.00
DIFFERENCE -2.9 pp
STOCHASTICBET
BET365 MARKET
Market · BET365 Snapshot · 23 Oct 2026 · 21:21
PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

Dinamo Zagreb U19 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output
Dinamo Zagreb U19 NK Sesvete U19
Shots 14.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Dinamo Zagreb U19, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance
Dinamo Zagreb U19 NK Sesvete U19
Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Dinamo Zagreb U19 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence
Dinamo Zagreb U19 NK Sesvete U19

The combined recent performance profile favours Dinamo Zagreb U19.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Market Momentum

Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-10-24 11:13:02

6h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — +0.00 pp
DRAW — +0.00 pp
AWAY — +0.00 pp

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

24h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — +0.00 pp
DRAW — +0.00 pp
AWAY — +0.00 pp

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.

Explore recent match statisticsCharts and detailed data
RECENT FORM · LAST 6 MATCHES

Recent matches compared

These charts compare recent performance with the league average. The central line represents the benchmark: values to the right are higher and values to the left are lower. Higher values are not always better, particularly for defensive metrics.
Benchmark: Croatia U19 League · 110 matches with scores · 87 with shots · coverage 79.1%.
Historical window: 180 days before kickoff. Shooting benchmarks require at least 30 complete matches.

How have the teams performed recently?

Most recent first · W win · D draw · L loss

Dinamo Zagreb U196 matches · 3 home / 3 away
LWDWWD
Shot data available for 6/6 matches
NK Sesvete U196 matches · 3 home / 3 away
LWDDDL
Shot data available for 6/6 matches

Shots taken

Shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Dinamo Zagreb U19Home team
+6.216.0 actual
NK Sesvete U19Away team
−0.29.7 actual
Dinamo Zagreb U19: 16.0 · league average 9.9 · 6 valid matchesNK Sesvete U19: 9.7 · league average 9.9 · 6 valid matches

Shots conceded

Opposition shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Dinamo Zagreb U19Home team
−3.26.7 actual
NK Sesvete U19Away team
+1.711.5 actual
Dinamo Zagreb U19: 6.7 · league average 9.9 · 6 valid matchesNK Sesvete U19: 11.5 · league average 9.9 · 6 valid matches

Shots on target

Shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Dinamo Zagreb U19Home team
+1.35.7 actual
NK Sesvete U19Away team
+0.34.7 actual
Dinamo Zagreb U19: 5.7 · league average 4.4 · 6 valid matchesNK Sesvete U19: 4.7 · league average 4.4 · 6 valid matches

Shots on target conceded

Opposition shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Dinamo Zagreb U19Home team
−2.12.3 actual
NK Sesvete U19Away team
+0.44.8 actual
Dinamo Zagreb U19: 2.3 · league average 4.4 · 6 valid matchesNK Sesvete U19: 4.8 · league average 4.4 · 6 valid matches

Goals scored

Goals per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Dinamo Zagreb U19Home team
+0.822.50 actual
NK Sesvete U19Away team
−0.181.50 actual
Dinamo Zagreb U19: 2.50 · league average 1.68 · 6 valid matchesNK Sesvete U19: 1.50 · league average 1.68 · 6 valid matches

Shot conversion

Goals per shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
Dinamo Zagreb U19Home team
−0.6 pp15.6% actual
NK Sesvete U19Away team
−0.7 pp15.5% actual
Dinamo Zagreb U19: 15.6% · league average 16.2% · 6 valid matchesNK Sesvete U19: 15.5% · league average 16.2% · 6 valid matches

Goals conceded per shots faced

Goals conceded per opposition shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
Dinamo Zagreb U19Home team
+3.8 pp20.0% actual
NK Sesvete U19Away team
−0.3 pp15.9% actual
Dinamo Zagreb U19: 20.0% · league average 16.2% · 6 valid matchesNK Sesvete U19: 15.9% · league average 16.2% · 6 valid matches

Individual match details

Dinamo Zagreb U19 · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
17/10/2026Away0–311 / 82 / 3
11/10/2026Home8–220 / 48 / 2
20/09/2026Away1–110 / 94 / 3
13/09/2026Home1–015 / 76 / 2
08/09/2026Home3–023 / 411 / 0
30/08/2026Away2–217 / 83 / 4
NK Sesvete U19 · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
18/10/2026Home0–19 / 93 / 3
11/10/2026Away2–16 / 102 / 5
19/09/2026Home2–29 / 144 / 4
13/09/2026Away2–28 / 155 / 7
05/09/2026Home2–219 / 148 / 4
02/09/2026Away1–37 / 76 / 6

The recent matches are the latest available before kickoff within the historical window and may include other competitions. The benchmark refers to the event league and is weighted by the home/away composition of the recent sample. Goals and shots may have different data coverage; conversion rates use only matches with paired observations. Benchmarks are reconstructed from match dates rather than certified data-capture timestamps. Opponent strength and chance quality (xG) are not adjusted for. Some statistics may be incomplete or anomalous. These indicators are descriptive, not predictive.