Zeljeznicar vs FK Sarajevo

09 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +4.0 pp

Zeljeznicar

FK Sarajevo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.2% DRAW 31.3% AWAY 46.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.0% 3.64 DRAW 31.5% 3.00 AWAY 42.5% 2.22

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FK Sarajevo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.5% win probability, compared with 42.5% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FK Sarajevo has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Zeljeznicar FK Sarajevo

Shots 8.0 · On target 2.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours FK Sarajevo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Zeljeznicar FK Sarajevo

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

FK Sarajevo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Zeljeznicar FK Sarajevo

The combined recent performance profile favours FK Sarajevo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Zeljeznicar ↓ -0.39 (-9.6%)

FK Sarajevo ↑ +0.25 (+12.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.