Selaya vs Castro

06 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Selaya

Castro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.6% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 30.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.4% 2.48 DRAW 29.9% 3.18 AWAY 31.7% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Selaya

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Selaya Castro

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 1.3 · On target 0.3

Recent attacking output favours Selaya, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Selaya Castro

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 1.0

Castro has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Selaya Castro

The combined recent performance profile favours Selaya.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Selaya = (0.0%)

Castro ↑ +0.38 (+14.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.