Energetik Mingechevir vs Cebrayil FK

17 Sep 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Energetik Mingechevir

Cebrayil FK

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 35.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% 2.22 DRAW 26.2% 3.50 AWAY 32.4% 2.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cebrayil FK relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.5% win probability, compared with 32.4% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Cebrayil FK has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Energetik Mingechevir Cebrayil FK

Shots 4.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Cebrayil FK, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Energetik Mingechevir Cebrayil FK

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Energetik Mingechevir Cebrayil FK

The combined recent performance profile favours Cebrayil FK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Energetik Mingechevir ↑ +0.47 (+31.3%)

Cebrayil FK ↓ -3.10 (-49.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.