Moik Baku vs Simal FK

11 Sep 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Moik Baku

Simal FK

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% 1.90 DRAW 26.0% 3.70 AWAY 23.4% 4.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Simal FK

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Moik Baku Simal FK

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Simal FK, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Moik Baku Simal FK

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Moik Baku has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Moik Baku Simal FK

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Moik Baku ↑ +0.46 (+31.6%)

Simal FK ↓ -1.40 (-25.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.