Zaqatala vs Baku Sporting FC

10 Sep 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.3 pp

Zaqatala

Baku Sporting FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.7% DRAW 22.8% AWAY 53.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.6% 3.60 DRAW 24.2% 4.10 AWAY 48.2% 2.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Baku Sporting FC clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.5% win probability, compared with 48.2% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Baku Sporting FC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Zaqatala Baku Sporting FC

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 13.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Baku Sporting FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Zaqatala Baku Sporting FC

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Baku Sporting FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Zaqatala Baku Sporting FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Baku Sporting FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Zaqatala ↑ +1.60 (+80.0%)

Baku Sporting FC ↓ -1.24 (-37.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.