Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II

17 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Real Monarchs SLC

Minnesota United FC II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.3% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 51.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.8% 3.32 DRAW 23.1% 4.13 AWAY 48.2% 1.98

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Minnesota United FC II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.9% win probability, compared with 48.2% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Minnesota United FC II has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Monarchs SLC Minnesota United FC II

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Minnesota United FC II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Monarchs SLC Minnesota United FC II

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.3

Minnesota United FC II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Monarchs SLC Minnesota United FC II

The combined recent performance profile favours Minnesota United FC II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Real Monarchs SLC ↑ +0.94 (+39.6%)

Minnesota United FC II ↓ -0.40 (-16.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.