Rec de Huelva vs Puente Genil

13 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Rec de Huelva

Puente Genil

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.6% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 12.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.0% 1.61 DRAW 26.2% 3.63 AWAY 14.9% 6.39

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Rec de Huelva relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.6% win probability, compared with 59.0% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Rec de Huelva has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rec de Huelva Puente Genil

Shots 16.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Rec de Huelva, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rec de Huelva Puente Genil

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Rec de Huelva has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rec de Huelva Puente Genil

The combined recent performance profile favours Rec de Huelva.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Rec de Huelva ↓ -0.19 (-10.6%)

Puente Genil ↑ +2.39 (+59.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.