CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps

17 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.8 pp

CF Montreal

Vancouver Whitecaps

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 18.7% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 59.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.7% 4.08 DRAW 23.4% 3.96 AWAY 53.9% 1.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Vancouver Whitecaps clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.7% win probability, compared with 53.9% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Vancouver Whitecaps has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CF Montreal Vancouver Whitecaps

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 17.8 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Vancouver Whitecaps, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CF Montreal Vancouver Whitecaps

Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Vancouver Whitecaps has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CF Montreal Vancouver Whitecaps

The combined recent performance profile favours Vancouver Whitecaps.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CF Montreal ↑ +0.60 (+15.0%)

Vancouver Whitecaps = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.