Cagliari vs Verona

03 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Cagliari

Verona

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.5% DRAW 29.1% AWAY 26.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.7% 1.98 DRAW 28.4% 3.40 AWAY 22.9% 4.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Verona relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 26.3% win probability, compared with 22.9% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Verona has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cagliari Verona

Shots 12.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 15.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cagliari Verona

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Verona has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cagliari Verona

The combined recent performance profile favours Verona.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Cagliari ↑ +0.37 (+23.3%)

Verona ↓ -0.31 (-6.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.