Genoa vs Sudtirol

15 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Genoa

Sudtirol

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.0% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 16.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.8% 1.58 DRAW 23.4% 4.10 AWAY 15.8% 6.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sudtirol

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Genoa Sudtirol

Shots 11.8 · On target 2.5 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Genoa Sudtirol

Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Sudtirol has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Genoa Sudtirol

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Genoa ↓ -0.08 (-4.9%)

Sudtirol ↑ +0.97 (+18.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.