CSA vs Nacional AM

04 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

CSA

Nacional AM

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.2% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 14.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.0% 1.55 DRAW 25.7% 3.62 AWAY 14.3% 6.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CSA

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CSA Nacional AM

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours CSA, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CSA Nacional AM

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CSA Nacional AM

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

CSA ↓ -0.14 (-8.4%)

Nacional AM ↑ +1.75 (+33.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.