Derry City vs Dundalk

06 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Derry City

Dundalk

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.8% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 25.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.1% 1.79 DRAW 25.3% 3.75 AWAY 21.6% 4.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dundalk relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 25.4% win probability, compared with 21.6% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Dundalk has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Derry City Dundalk

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 22.0 · On target 8.5

Recent attacking output favours Dundalk, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Derry City Dundalk

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Dundalk has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Derry City Dundalk

The combined recent performance profile favours Dundalk.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Derry City ↓ -0.23 (-11.4%)

Dundalk ↑ +1.36 (+44.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.