FC Arkadag vs Al-Muharraq

15 Sep 2026 · 15:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

FC Arkadag

Al-Muharraq

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.2% DRAW 30.8% AWAY 40.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.1% 3.07 DRAW 30.8% 3.10 AWAY 38.2% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al-Muharraq relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.9% win probability, compared with 38.2% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al-Muharraq

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Arkadag Al-Muharraq

Shots 1.0 · On target 1.0 Shots 15.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Al-Muharraq, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Arkadag Al-Muharraq

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5

FC Arkadag has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Arkadag Al-Muharraq

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Muharraq.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FC Arkadag ↑ +0.11 (+3.6%)

Al-Muharraq ↑ +0.29 (+13.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.