Neftchi Fergana vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

14 Sep 2026 · 15:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.8 pp

Neftchi Fergana

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.1% DRAW 22.6% AWAY 12.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% 1.61 DRAW 24.4% 3.97 AWAY 15.3% 6.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Neftchi Fergana clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.1% win probability, compared with 60.3% implied by the market. The 4.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Neftchi Fergana has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Neftchi Fergana Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Shots 13.8 · On target 7.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Neftchi Fergana, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Neftchi Fergana Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.0

Neftchi Fergana has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Neftchi Fergana Al Quwa Al Jawiya

The combined recent performance profile favours Neftchi Fergana.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Neftchi Fergana ↓ -0.17 (-9.6%)

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↑ +2.53 (+66.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.