Johor Darul Takzim vs Buriram United

15 Sep 2026 · 14:15

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +7.4 pp

Johor Darul Takzim

Buriram United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.1% DRAW 22.6% AWAY 17.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.7% 1.86 DRAW 24.7% 3.96 AWAY 22.6% 4.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Johor Darul Takzim substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.1% win probability, compared with 52.7% implied by the market. The 7.4 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Johor Darul Takzim has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Johor Darul Takzim Buriram United

Shots 21.8 · On target 13.0 Shots 16.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Johor Darul Takzim, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Johor Darul Takzim Buriram United

Shots allowed 1.3 · On target allowed 0.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Johor Darul Takzim has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Johor Darul Takzim Buriram United

The combined recent performance profile favours Johor Darul Takzim.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Johor Darul Takzim ↓ -0.14 (-7.0%)

Buriram United ↓ -0.45 (-9.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.