Gamba Osaka vs Cong An Ha Noi

15 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

Gamba Osaka

Cong An Ha Noi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.1% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 16.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.4% 1.48 DRAW 19.6% 5.00 AWAY 14.0% 7.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cong An Ha Noi relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 16.9% win probability, compared with 14.0% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Cong An Ha Noi

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gamba Osaka Cong An Ha Noi

Shots 14.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gamba Osaka Cong An Ha Noi

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.0

Cong An Ha Noi has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gamba Osaka Cong An Ha Noi

The combined recent performance profile favours Cong An Ha Noi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Gamba Osaka ↑ +0.26 (+21.1%)

Cong An Ha Noi ↓ -2.97 (-29.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.