Al Ahli Jeddah vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

14 Sep 2026 · 20:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Al Ahli Jeddah

Pakhtakor Tashkent

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.7% DRAW 12.6% AWAY 8.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 77.6% 1.23 DRAW 13.7% 6.96 AWAY 8.7% 11.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al Ahli Jeddah

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Ahli Jeddah Pakhtakor Tashkent

Shots 15.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Al Ahli Jeddah, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Ahli Jeddah Pakhtakor Tashkent

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Ahli Jeddah Pakhtakor Tashkent

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Al Ahli Jeddah ↑ +0.10 (+8.8%)

Pakhtakor Tashkent ↓ -0.90 (-7.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.