Adelaide United vs Tai Po

17 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Adelaide United

Tai Po

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.1% DRAW 14.2% AWAY 7.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.4% 1.22 DRAW 14.5% 6.59 AWAY 7.0% 13.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tai Po

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Adelaide United Tai Po

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 15.5 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Tai Po, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Adelaide United Tai Po

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Adelaide United has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Adelaide United Tai Po

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Adelaide United ↓ -0.08 (-6.0%)

Tai Po ↑ +6.60 (+94.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.