Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Kyoto Sanga FC

15 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.5 pp

Daejeon Hana Citizen

Kyoto Sanga FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 21.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% 2.18 DRAW 28.7% 3.41 AWAY 26.4% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Daejeon Hana Citizen clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.4% win probability, compared with 44.9% implied by the market. The 5.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Daejeon Hana Citizen has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Daejeon Hana Citizen Kyoto Sanga FC

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Daejeon Hana Citizen, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Daejeon Hana Citizen Kyoto Sanga FC

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Daejeon Hana Citizen has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Daejeon Hana Citizen Kyoto Sanga FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Daejeon Hana Citizen.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Daejeon Hana Citizen ↓ -0.32 (-12.7%)

Kyoto Sanga FC ↑ +1.36 (+58.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.