Kuwait vs Iraq

26 Sep 2026 · 17:55

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Kuwait

Iraq

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.1% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 58.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.7% 6.92 DRAW 24.9% 3.81 AWAY 61.3% 1.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Iraq

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Kuwait Iraq

Shots 3.0 · On target 1.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Iraq, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Kuwait Iraq

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Kuwait has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Kuwait Iraq

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Kuwait ↑ +2.72 (+64.8%)

Iraq ↓ -0.25 (-13.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.