Iraq vs Oman

23 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.7 pp

Iraq

Oman

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 29.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.2% 2.00 DRAW 28.5% 3.32 AWAY 24.3% 3.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Oman clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.0% win probability, compared with 24.3% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Iraq

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Iraq Oman

Shots 7.0 · On target 1.0 Shots 2.0 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Iraq, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Iraq Oman

Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 0.8

Oman has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Iraq Oman

The combined recent performance profile favours Oman.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Iraq ↑ +0.09 (+4.8%)

Oman ↑ +0.39 (+11.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.