Alianza Lima (W) vs Atletico Andahuaylas (W)

06 Sep 2026 · 22:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Alianza Lima (W)

Atletico Andahuaylas (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 79.6% DRAW 14.1% AWAY 6.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.5% 1.30 DRAW 15.9% 6.25 AWAY 7.6% 13.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Alianza Lima (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 79.6% win probability, compared with 76.5% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Alianza Lima (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza Lima (W) Atletico Andahuaylas (W)

Shots 16.0 · On target 8.0 Shots 8.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Alianza Lima (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza Lima (W) Atletico Andahuaylas (W)

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Alianza Lima (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza Lima (W) Atletico Andahuaylas (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Alianza Lima (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Alianza Lima (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.2%)

Atletico Andahuaylas (W) ↑ +5.50 (+73.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.