Defensores Del Ilucan (W) vs Flamengo FBC (W)

06 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Defensores Del Ilucan (W)

Flamengo FBC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.6% DRAW 21.4% AWAY 57.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.9% 3.91 DRAW 22.8% 4.10 AWAY 53.4% 1.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Flamengo FBC (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.0% win probability, compared with 53.4% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Flamengo FBC (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Flamengo FBC (W)

Shots 8.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Flamengo FBC (W)

Shots allowed 23.5 · On target allowed 10.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Flamengo FBC (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Flamengo FBC (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Flamengo FBC (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Defensores Del Ilucan (W) ↓ -3.09 (-44.1%)

Flamengo FBC (W) ↑ +0.45 (+34.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.