Union Comercio vs CD Universidad San Martin

06 Sep 2026 · 22:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Union Comercio

CD Universidad San Martin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.8% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 16.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.0% 1.79 DRAW 27.5% 3.45 AWAY 19.5% 4.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Union Comercio relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.8% win probability, compared with 53.0% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Union Comercio has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Comercio CD Universidad San Martin

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Comercio CD Universidad San Martin

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 6.5

Union Comercio has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Comercio CD Universidad San Martin

The combined recent performance profile favours Union Comercio.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Union Comercio ↑ +0.20 (+13.6%)

CD Universidad San Martin ↓ -0.25 (-4.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.