Alianza Universidad vs Union Minas

06 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Alianza Universidad

Union Minas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.7% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 28.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.2% 2.02 DRAW 28.5% 3.34 AWAY 24.3% 3.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Union Minas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.1% win probability, compared with 24.3% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Union Minas has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza Universidad Union Minas

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza Universidad Union Minas

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Union Minas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza Universidad Union Minas

The combined recent performance profile favours Union Minas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Alianza Universidad ↑ +0.02 (+1.0%)

Union Minas ↑ +0.72 (+22.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.