Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro

02 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

ALIGNED HOME +2.2 pp

Gubbio

Vis Pesaro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 30.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.3% 2.25 DRAW 28.4% 3.20 AWAY 31.3% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Gubbio significantly higher than the market does.

Our model estimates a 42.5% win probability, compared with 40.3% implied by the market. This 2.2 percentage-point gap, supported by 1,361 historically comparable matches, highlights a significant divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Gubbio has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gubbio Vis Pesaro

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 6.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gubbio Vis Pesaro

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 6.0

Gubbio has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gubbio Vis Pesaro

The combined recent performance profile favours Gubbio.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Gubbio ↓ -0.07 (-2.7%)

Vis Pesaro ↑ +0.33 (+12.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.