Novara vs Livorno

03 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Novara

Livorno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% DRAW 28.3% AWAY 36.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% 2.52 DRAW 28.4% 3.16 AWAY 35.9% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Livorno

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Novara Livorno

Shots 8.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Livorno, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Novara Livorno

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Novara has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Novara Livorno

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Novara ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

Livorno ↓ -0.01 (-0.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.