Rwanda vs Liberia

25 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Rwanda

Liberia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.1% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 17.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.3% 1.75 DRAW 26.7% 3.56 AWAY 19.0% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Rwanda relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.1% win probability, compared with 54.3% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Liberia

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rwanda Liberia

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Liberia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rwanda Liberia

Shots allowed 1.8 · On target allowed 0.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Rwanda has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rwanda Liberia

The combined recent performance profile favours Rwanda.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Rwanda ↓ -0.16 (-8.3%)

Liberia ↑ +1.29 (+34.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.